Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Saver's Credit claimant returns, TY2025
How many individual income tax returns will claim the Saver's Credit for tax year 2025 in IRS Statistics of Income data?
current forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5.3M5.9M6.6M
history:TY2020: 6.1MTY2021: 5.8MTY2022: 5.6MTY2023: 5.7MTY2024e: 5.8M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025
Key drivers
- Low- and moderate-income retirement contributions
- Earnings growth and eligibility thresholds
- Tax software prompting
- Refund size salience
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income, Individual Income Tax Returns line-item estimates
- expected
- August 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the IRS SOI tax-year 2025 estimate of the number of returns claiming the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit. If IRS reports both preliminary and complete-report values, the complete-report line-item estimate governs.
- Data point
- irs.soi.savers_credit_claimant_returns.ty2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: irs.soi.lookupauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: policyengine.simulateauthored, not executed
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.